Supply:
Yields continued to improve through Q3. Mills continue to run at capacity as they catch up on delayed 2025 contracts. Demand for exports is stabilizing and pricing have begun to modestly soften but are still quite high due to sustained price premium of Coconut Oil over Palm Kernel Oil.
Shipping:
Q3 shipping was in decline. There was a modest GRI end of October and occasional blank sailing and consideration for November GRI, but rates continue to remain in pre-pandemic range. Transit times have also stabilized at around 40-50 days with less delays at most ports.
Things to watch for in 2025 Q4:
We expect supply to remain strong for the quarter and pricing to continue to soften, however, we are still in peak storm season (May- December) in the Philippines. Any significant storms may cause disruption to supply and cause some market instability.