Crops and Supply:
The 2023-2024 El Nino season continues to wreak havoc on supply. Many forecasts are suggesting that supply issues are likely to continue through Q3 2025.
There has been a diminished size of nuts and lack of overall crop yields. This has made it challenging for the mills to secure supply to maintain production capacity necessary to catch up on the backlog of orders from 2024.
Demand continues to surge, driving up pricing to unprecedented levels.
Shipping and Transit Times:
Shipping rates drop after the typical rate increases leading up to the Chinese New Year. Rates are projected to continue to drop as forecasts suggest over supply and low demand for shipments through Q2.
Current transit times are still between 40-60 days (ship date to arrival date), dependent on any delays at transshipment ports and destination ports.
Things to watch for in Q2-2025:
It looks as though demand is likely to stay strong through Q2. We hope to see the beginning signs of increased crop yields and nut sizes so that the mills can ramp up capacity and catch up on outstanding orders, bringing Q3 back to a more stable market.
As we find ourselves in an unprecedented time of global tensions, we will also need to monitor any changes to the geo-political landscape and potential tariffs and the effects that these events may have on the market and shipping moving forward.