Market Report

As we enter Q4, supply remains steady for the time being, but the next cycle of El Nino has begun, and many major coconut growing regions have already seen decreased rainfalls over the last few months. Expectations are that lower yields will start already Q2 2027.  All reports suggest that this will be strongest El Nino on record with devastating effects likely to be felt throughout 2027.    Shipping: Ocean freight rates have been on the rise over the last number of months due to on-going geopolitical conflicts disrupting shipping lines, raising operation, energy costs, and causing unpredictable demand on uncertain...

Supply remains strong and is poised to continue to remain strong for the remainder the year as crops and operations are fully recovered from drought due to El Nino 2024, with shortages well into 2025.  Many mills are now for the most part fully operational and are expected to be running at capacity from April through to October.                                                   Pricing remains high due to continued high demand for Palm Oil and with additional demand for Coconut oil due to ongoing EU deforestation regulation initiatives.  Additionally, oil shortage crises due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is causing strain...

Supply: We begin by looking back at the many factors that have played an important role over the last couple of years in shaping where we are at to start 2026 along with any recent developments that will inform market conditions for Q1 and beyond In 2025, we finally began to see relief from the poor yields experienced through 2024 due to El Nino weather phenomenon.    Coconut crops recovered throughout 2025; however, many mills continued to run at capacity as they worked to catch up on the many delays in shipments through 2024. As backlogs continued to be filled...

Supply: Yields continued to improve through Q3.  Mills continue to run at capacity as they catch up on delayed 2025 contracts.  Demand for exports is stabilizing and pricing have begun to modestly soften but are still quite high due to sustained price premium of Coconut Oil over Palm Kernel Oil. Shipping: Q3 shipping was in decline. There was a modest GRI end of October and occasional blank sailing and consideration for November GRI, but rates continue to remain in pre-pandemic range.  Transit times have also stabilized at around 40-50 days with less delays at most ports. Things to watch for...