Market Report

Supply: We begin by looking back at the many factors that have played an important role over the last couple of years in shaping where we are at to start 2026 along with any recent developments that will inform market conditions for Q1 and beyond In 2025, we finally began to see relief from the poor yields experienced through 2024 due to El Nino weather phenomenon.    Coconut crops recovered throughout 2025; however, many mills continued to run at capacity as they worked to catch up on the many delays in shipments through 2024. As backlogs continued to be filled...

Supply: Yields continued to improve through Q3.  Mills continue to run at capacity as they catch up on delayed 2025 contracts.  Demand for exports is stabilizing and pricing have begun to modestly soften but are still quite high due to sustained price premium of Coconut Oil over Palm Kernel Oil. Shipping: Q3 shipping was in decline. There was a modest GRI end of October and occasional blank sailing and consideration for November GRI, but rates continue to remain in pre-pandemic range.  Transit times have also stabilized at around 40-50 days with less delays at most ports. Things to watch for...

As we moved through Q2, we began to see an improvement in supply. Crops finally showed signs of recovery after the sustained low yields that affected the market throughout 2024 and into early 2025, largely due to the 2023/2024 El Niño season. Demand remains strong, and pricing continues to hover near historic highs. Shipping faced some disruption during Q2 following the implementation of U.S. tariffs. This caused some shipment cancellations and blank sailings early in the quarter, followed by a sudden surge in demand and rate hikes toward the end of Q2. Thankfully, shipping conditions now appear to be stabilizing,...

Crops and Supply: The 2023-2024 El Nino season continues to wreak havoc on supply.  Many forecasts are suggesting that supply issues are likely to continue through Q3 2025.   There has been a diminished size of nuts and lack of overall crop yields.  This has made it challenging for the mills to secure supply to maintain production capacity necessary to catch up on the backlog of orders from 2024.  Demand continues to surge, driving up pricing to unprecedented levels.        Shipping and Transit Times: Shipping rates drop after the typical rate increases leading up to the Chinese New Year. Rates are...