Market Report

Supply: Yields continued to improve through Q3.  Mills continue to run at capacity as they catch up on delayed 2025 contracts.  Demand for exports is stabilizing and pricing have begun to modestly soften but are still quite high due to sustained price premium of Coconut Oil over Palm Kernel Oil. Shipping: Q3 shipping was in decline. There was a modest GRI end of October and occasional blank sailing and consideration for November GRI, but rates continue to remain in pre-pandemic range.  Transit times have also stabilized at around 40-50 days with less delays at most ports. Things to watch for...

As we moved through Q2, we began to see an improvement in supply. Crops finally showed signs of recovery after the sustained low yields that affected the market throughout 2024 and into early 2025, largely due to the 2023/2024 El Niño season. Demand remains strong, and pricing continues to hover near historic highs. Shipping faced some disruption during Q2 following the implementation of U.S. tariffs. This caused some shipment cancellations and blank sailings early in the quarter, followed by a sudden surge in demand and rate hikes toward the end of Q2. Thankfully, shipping conditions now appear to be stabilizing,...

Crops and Supply: The 2023-2024 El Nino season continues to wreak havoc on supply.  Many forecasts are suggesting that supply issues are likely to continue through Q3 2025.   There has been a diminished size of nuts and lack of overall crop yields.  This has made it challenging for the mills to secure supply to maintain production capacity necessary to catch up on the backlog of orders from 2024.  Demand continues to surge, driving up pricing to unprecedented levels.        Shipping and Transit Times: Shipping rates drop after the typical rate increases leading up to the Chinese New Year. Rates are...

As we have closed out 2024, the effects of the El Nino Season that extended from last half of 2023 through the first half of 2024 have been fully realized. In many regions, coconut yields have been halved in their bunches and in their size.  Forecasts project the effects will be felt through Q1, as such supply shortages are likely to extend into 2025 Q2.  In Q4 2024, SE Asia experienced several typhoon related events, causing even more of a strain on an already tight supply.  Typhoon season is nearly over as it usually ends December, however, the last major...